Scotland’s Population Projected to Continue to Rise

Scotland’s population is projected to continue to increase into the future.

Statistics published today by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) show the population of Scotland is projected to rise from 5.35 million in 2014 to 5.51 million over the next ten years, and then to continue to rise to 5.7 million by 2039 – an increase of seven per cent over the 25 year period.

Commenting on the publication of the ‘National Population Projections for Scotland’, Registrar General and NRS Chief Executive Tim Ellis said:

“The latest population projections indicate that while Scotland’s population is expected to reach record levels for years to come, it is not projected to be quite as high as the previous set of projections suggested.

“Scotland’s population is projected to continue to rise into the future because although Scotland’s birth rate and inward net migration levels have recently fallen, they are still high by historic standards. Also people at older ages are expected to live longer.”

The report provides projections for the period up to 2039. They show what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based largely on past trends, and although they will reflect past policy and economic impacts, they do not take account of future changes that may occur as a result of policy initiatives.

Main findings

Principal projection

• The population of Scotland is projected to rise from 5.35 million in 2014 to 5.51 million over the next 10 years, and then to continue to rise to 5.7 million in 2039 – an increase of seven per cent over the 25 year period. 
• Over the next decade, 10 per cent of the projected increase in Scotland’s population can be attributed to natural increase (more births than deaths) while 90 per cent of the increase is due to assuming continuing inward net migration to Scotland (57 per cent from international migration and 32 per cent from cross-border migration with the rest of the UK). 
• Over the next 10 years, the number of children aged under 16 is projected to increase by two per cent from 0.91 to 0.93 million. The number of children is then projected to decrease to 0.92 million by 2039, resulting in an overall increase of only one per cent over the 25 year period from 2014 to 2039. 
• The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by around 29 per cent in the first 10 years of the projection period, from 0.43 million in 2014 to 0.56 million in 2024. It is then projected to continue rising, reaching 0.8 million in 2039 – an increase of 85 per cent over the 25 year period. 
• Over the next 10 years, the population of working age is projected to increase from 3.38 million to 3.49 million (an increase of three per cent). It is then projected to peak at 3.54 million in 2028. After this, the working age population is projected to decline to 3.42 million in 2039. Overall there is a one per cent projected increase over the 25 year period. 
• The number of people of pensionable age and over is projected to increase by three per cent between 2014 and 2024, from 1.06 million to 1.09 million. It is then projected to reach 1.36 million by 2039 (an increase of around 28 per cent compared with 2014). 
• The population is projected to continue ageing, with the average age rising from 41.9 in 2014 to 45.2 in 2039. 
• The dependency ratio – the ratio of people aged under 16 and of pensionable age and over, to those of working age – is projected to rise from around 58 dependants per 100 working population in 2014 to 67 per 100 in 2039. This rise is mainly due to the increase in the population of state pension age and over. 
• While Scotland’s population is projected to increase by seven per cent over the 25 year period,  England’s population is projected to increase by 17 per cent, Northern Ireland’s population by 10 per cent and Wales’s population by six per cent between 2014 and 2039. 

Variant projections

• Under the majority of the alternative scenarios illustrated by the nine available variant projections, Scotland’s population is projected to increase between 2014 and 2039. Only the low population variant and the variant with natural change only project a decrease in Scotland’s population by two per cent from 2014 to 2039. 
• All the variant projections show Scotland’s population ageing over the next 25 years, with the number of people aged 75+ projected to increase by between 72 per cent and 99 per cent under these variant assumptions.

The full publication ‘National Population Projections for Scotland (2014 based)’ and an Infographic Supplement are available on this website.