2016

New document sheds light on historic isle.

A 250-year-old census showing the earliest recorded population of the Island of St Kilda has been discovered thanks to work by the National Records of Scotland.

The census lists the 90 people living on the island on 15 June 1764, 38 males and 52 females, including 19 families and 9 individuals. After listing their names, the census says that they each ate “36 wild fouls eggs and 18 fouls” (seabirds) a day, an  overall daily consumption of 3240 eggs and 1620 birds.

The document was discovered among the papers of the Maclachlan of Maclachlan family during cataloguing by the National Register of Archives for Scotland (NRAS), the branch of the National Records of Scotland which records historical papers held in private hands in Scotland.

It is not known exactly why the census was taken, or by whom, but it is likely it was made to contribute to a wider report on the Hebrides.

 Until now, the oldest known record of the population dated from 1822. As the later document included ages, it is possible to track five residents of St Kilda who appeared on both censuses, 52 years apart. The 1764 census also includes the ancestors of the final five families to be evacuated from the island in 1930, the MacQueens, Fergusons, Gillies, MacDonalds and MacKinnons.

 Dr Alison Rosie, Registrar of the National Register of Archives for Scotland, said:

 “This document sheds new light on the history of St Kilda and the families who lived there, and gives us an insight into their lives more than 250 years ago.

 “Through it we can trace individuals back fifty years earlier than the next surviving census, and many of the people listed were the ancestors of the families who left the island in 1930.

 “One of the most fascinating aspects of working for the National Register of Archives for Scotland, which celebrates its 70^th birthday this year, is the potential for discovering new and exciting documents like this, often in unexpected places, and then drawing them to the attention of historians and the public.”

 Donald Maclauchlan of Clan Maclachlan said:

 “The document was found as part of  a hoard of papers - around 13 large boxes. When I heard from Charlie Maclachlan of Maclachlan the younger that they had been found I asked to see some of them and the first document I pulled out dated from 1590.  I realised the time had come to call in the professionals.

 “The team from NRAS had the papers spread out all over the dining room of Castle Lachlan – which is not a small room – and went through them, gasping a bit, before explaining that they would need more than an afternoon to evaluate them, boxing them back up and taking them away. A year and  half’s studyproduced a 79 page catalogue of everything we have.

 “There’s some very interesting material about Clan Maclachlan history in there, of which this St Kilda document is just one part.”

Click on the above image to view a higher quality image (image - Courtesy of the Lachlan Trust).

 You can read more about the history of St Kilda on this website, and on our ScotlandsPeople website.
 

National Records of Scotland reveals most popular names in 2016

Olivia and Jack were the most popular first forenames for babies whose births were registered in 2016, National Records of Scotland (NRS) announced today. Olivia replaced Emily to become the top girls’ name for the first time ever (in these figures, which go back to 1974). Jack was the most popular boys’ name for the ninth consecutive year.

Olivia just made it as the top girls’ name: 492 baby girls were named Olivia, with Emily coming a close second at 490. Olivia rose from third in 2015 to first in 2016, and Sophie was down from second to third (having been the top name from 2005 to 2013). Isla remained fourth, Ava rose one place to fifth, and Amelia was up one place to sixth. Jessica fell two places to seventh, Ella and Lucy remained eighth and ninth, and Charlotte jumped eleven places to tenth.

Charlotte was the only entrant to the girls’ Top Ten; Lily (down two places to joint twelfth) was the only name to drop out.

Sophia (up three places to sixteenth) was the fastest climber within the girls’ Top Twenty. There were three entrants to the girls’ Top Twenty: Charlotte, Aria (up fourteen places to eleventh) and Evie (up eight places to eighteenth).

Jack remained the most popular boys’ name. James rose from third in 2015 to second in 2016, and Oliver was down from second to third. Lewis remained in fourth place. Logan rose three places to fifth, Harry climbed ten places to sixth, Noah jumped eight places to seventh, Leo rose five places to eighth, Charlie was down three places at ninth and Alexander fell from fifth to tenth.

Harry, Noah and Leo were the only entrants to the boys' Top Ten; Lucas (down four places to joint eleventh), Harris (down four places to thirteenth) and Daniel (down eight places to eighteenth) dropped out.

The fastest climbers within the boys’ Top Twenty were Harry, Noah and Leo. Ethan was the only entrant to the Top Twenty, up six places to seventeenth.

Other big climbers within the 2016 Top Fifties included:

• Isabella (up nine places to 33rd)
• Robyn (up nine places to 37th)
• Jaxon (up nine places to joint 38th)
• Sofia (up eight places to joint 41st) 

National Records of Scotland registered the births of 26,408 boys and 24,489 girls in the period covered by these figures. Parents chose 3,132 different first forenames for boys and 4,137 different first forenames for girls. In total, 2,072 boys and 2,671 girls were given first forenames that were unique (in the period covered by these figures). The numbers of different names, and of unique names, were well above the levels of 10, 20 or 40 years ago.

The top fifty boys’ first names accounted for 40 per cent of all those registered and the top fifty girls’ first names accounted for 38 per cent of registrations. Jack was the first name of only 1.8 per cent of boys, and Olivia was the first name of just 2.0 per cent of girls.

The full publication Babies' Names 2016 is available on this website.

An Infographic is also available for this publication on this website.

Provisional figures for vital events registered in Scotland during the third quarter (Q3) of 2016 were published today by National Records of Scotland.

The statistics show 14,257 births, 13,202 deaths and 11,299 marriages were registered between July and September.

At 14,257, the number of births registered was 353 (2.4 per cent) fewer than in the same period of 2015 and the lowest quarter three total since 2006. The total number of births for the period fell to a low of  around 13,200 in 2001. It then rose to around 15,500 in 2008 and has been below 15,000 since 2012.

At 13,202, the number of deaths registered was 116 (0.9 per cent) more than in the same period of 2015. This is the third consecutive increase in the Q3 total and the highest figure for Q3 since 2003. Over the last decade the number of deaths in the third quarter has generally increased apart from an unusually low figure of 12,224 in 2013.

Compared with the third quarter of 2015, the number of deaths from coronary heart disease fell by 8.6 per cent to 1,443. Deaths from respiratory system disease fell by six per cent to 1,398 and there were 3,973 deaths from cancer (a decrease of 0.6 per cent). Deaths from cerebrovascular disease rose by 3.5 per cent to 964 and there was an increase of 21.6 per cent in the number of deaths from Alzheimer’s Disease (461).

The provisional figures also show there were 11,299 marriages in total, 135 fewer than during the third quarter of 2015 (a fall of 1.2 per cent). 

There were 355 same-sex marriages, a fall of 121 (25.4 per cent) from the 476 same-sex marriages registered in the same period of 2015. Fifty seven (16 per cent) of the same sex marriages registered in the third quarter were changes from civil partnerships. 

There were 25 civil partnerships (17 male and eight female), six more than during the third quarter of 2015.

The full publication, Births, deaths and other vital events - quarterly figures, is available on this website.

Life expectancy for men and women continues to improve, according to a report published today by the National Records of Scotland.

Based on statistics covering 2013-2015, the report breaks down further the estimates published at Scotland level on 10 August 2016 which showed that life expectancy is now 77.1 years for men and 81.1 years for women in Scotland.

Commenting on the report published today, Chief Executive of National Records of Scotland and Registrar General for Scotland Tim Ellis said:

“This report shows that while life expectancy continues to improve, there is still wide variation across Scotland.

“The report also shows that the gap between life expectancy for men and for women is continuing to narrow.

“Life expectancy for men is highest in East Dunbartonshire and lowest in Glasgow City, while for women it is highest in East Dunbartonshire and lowest in West Dunbartonshire.”

An infographic summarising the key points of the NRS report is available on this website.

The key points in this report for 2013-2015 are:

At birth

• Life expectancy for those born in 2013-15 in Scotland was 77.1 years for males and 81.1 years for females but with considerable variation between areas.
• Male and female life expectancy was highest in East Dunbartonshire council. Male life expectancy was lowest in Glasgow City while female life expectancy was lowest in West Dunbartonshire council. Males in East Dunbartonshire can expect to live for 80.5 years, 7.1 years longer than in Glasgow City (73.4 years). Females in East Dunbartonshire can expect to live for 83.5 years, 4.8 years longer than in West Dunbartonshire (78.7 years).
• The NHS Board area with the highest male life expectancy was Borders (78.8 years), with female life expectancy being highest in Western Isles (82.9 years); the NHS Board area with the lowest male life expectancy was Greater Glasgow and Clyde (75.3 years), with female life expectancy also lowest in Greater Glasgow and Clyde at 80.1 years.

Compared with UK and Europe

• Scottish males and females have the lowest life expectancy at birth of the United Kingdom (UK) constituent countries. Male life expectancy is 2.0 years lower than the UK average and female life expectancy is 1.7 years lower.
• In Scotland, males and females can expect to live shorter lives (by 2.3 years and 1.9 years respectively) than in England, where male and female life expectancy is the highest in the UK.
• Amongst European Union (EU 28) countries, male life expectancy was highest in Cyprus (80.9 years), 3.8 years higher than in Scotland. Female life expectancy was highest in Spain (86.2 years), 5.1 years higher than in Scotland.
• Although male and female life expectancy continues to improve in Scotland, the gap between Scottish and English life expectancy for both males and females has widened since 1980-1982 by 0.3 years for males and by 0.2 years for females.

Changes over time

• In general, male and female life expectancy has tended to increase over time.
• The biggest improvements in male life expectancy since 2001-2003 have been in Inverclyde council (5.3 years).
• The biggest improvements in female life expectancy since 2001-2003 have been in Highland and Na h-Eileanan Siar (3.2 years).
• The gap between male and female life expectancy at birth has decreased from 6.2 years in 1980-1982 to 4.1 years in 2013-2015. Male life expectancy has been increasing at a faster rate than for females from 2001-2003 to 2012-2014 closing the gap over this period.

At age 65

• Males in Scotland could expect to live for a further 17.3 years at age 65 and females a further 19.7 years.
• East Dunbartonshire council had the highest male life expectancy at age 65 (19.3 years), 4.1 years higher than in Glasgow City, where it was lowest at 15.2 years. Female life expectancy at age 65 was highest in East Renfrewshire (21.3years) and lowest in Glasgow City (18.2 years), a difference of 3.1 years.
• The NHS Board area with the highest male and female life expectancy at age 65 was Orkney (18.7 years and 21.2 years respectively). It was lowest for males in Greater Glasgow and Clyde (16.3 years) and for females in Lanarkshire (18.8 years).

The full publication Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland 2013-2015 is available on this website.

National Records of Scotland have today published additional population projections for Scotland based on varying potential levels of European Union migration.

The three additional variant projections do not have National Statistics status and have been created for illustrative purposes only. The additional variant projections are: zero future European Union migration; 50 per cent future European Union migration (50 per cent less future European Union migration); and 150 per cent future European Union migration (50 per cent more future European Union migration). Each of these variants has been produced for both Scotland and the United Kingdom as a whole (including Scotland).

As migration is concentrated amongst young adult ages, the effect of varying the level of migration is greater on the number of children and people of working age than on the number of people of pension age.

The principal projection is the main projection, and if current trends continue it suggests that the population of Scotland may rise from 5.35 million in 2014 to 5.7 million in 2039 – an increase of seven per cent over the 25 year period, as shown in the Figure below.

In the zero future European Union migration variant, the population of Scotland is projected to rise to 5.49 million in 2039 – an increase of three per cent from 2014. However under this variant, the population is projected to peak at 5.50 million in 2033 and then decline gradually after that point.

For the 50 per cent future European Union migration variant, the population of Scotland is projected to rise to 5.59 million in 2039 – an increase of five per cent from 2014. And for the 150 per cent future European Union migration variant, there is a nine per cent rise in population projected, to 5.81 million in 2039.

Figure: Percentage change in population from 2014 to 2039, principal and alternative European Union migration variant projections, United Kingdom and Scotland

Compared to Scotland, the United Kingdom’s projected population increase is more rapid, as shown in the Figure. The principal projection for the United Kingdom suggests that the population may rise from 64.6 million in 2014 to 74.3 million in 2039, an increase of 15 per cent. The more rapid increase projected for the United Kingdom also occurs for each of the additional variants, with an 11 per cent projected increase in population for the zero future European Union migration variant, a 13 per cent increase for the 50 per cent future European Union migration variant and a 17 per cent increase for the 150 per cent future European Union migration variant.

These additional variant projections, using alternative European Union migration assumptions, have been created for illustrative purposes only. Unlike the National Population Projections published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 29 October 2015 and 26 November 2015, these variant projections do not have National Statistics status. This is because the method for creating these additional migration assumptions was not subject to the same rigorous quality assurance and assessment process. National Statistics are assessed by the United Kingdom Statistics Authority as meeting the requirements of the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

The principal projection was published in October 2015 and the full publication is available in the Population Projections Scotland section of this website.

The full publication Projected Population of Scotland (2014-based): Additional Variants Using Alternative European Union Migration Assumptions is available on this website.
    

NRS has awarded our web archiving service contract to Internet Memory Research (IMR). This contract will deliver the technical functions of the new Web Continuity Service, a part of our on-going Digital Preservation Programme.

Our contract award notice can be found on the Public Contracts Scotland website.

Scotland’s projected population increase is likely to be unevenly spread across the country, according to a report issued today by the Registrar General for Scotland.

Commenting on the report, National Records of Scotland (NRS) Chief Executive and Registrar General Tim Ellis said:

“These new figures from National Records of Scotland show that over the next 25 years, if current trends continue, the population of Scotland is projected to increase by about seven per cent. But this varies across the country, with some areas like City of Edinburgh and Aberdeen City council areas projected to have relatively large increases compared with other large urban areas such as Glasgow City and Dundee City, while in some areas the population is projected to fall.”

Statistics published today by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) show the population of Scotland is projected to rise by seven per cent over the next 25 years, from 5.35 million in 2014 to 5.70 million by 2039, and continue to rise into the future. This pattern is not expected to be experienced in all areas of Scotland.

The report provides projections for the 25 year period 2014 to 2039. It includes population projections for council, NHS Board, Strategic Development Plan, and National Park areas. A summary of the projected population at five year intervals can be found in the Table on this website. 

The populations of 21 of the 32 council areas in Scotland are projected to increase, as shown in the Figure on this website. The council areas projected to show the largest relative increases over this period are the urban councils of City of Edinburgh (21 per cent), Aberdeen City (17 per cent), and their surrounding councils Midlothian (26 per cent), Aberdeenshire (20 per cent), and East Lothian (18 per cent).

Scotland’s population is projected to age and this is true for all administrative areas to a greater or lesser extent. By 2039, the number of children aged 0 to 15 is projected to increase in 12 council areas, the population of working age [Footnote 1] is projected to increase in 12 council areas, and the population of pensionable age [Footnote 1] and over is projected to increase in all council areas.

As the population of Scotland ages, larger increases are projected for older age groups. The population aged 75 and over is projected to increase in all council areas across Scotland between 2014 and 2039, as shown in the Figure on this website.

The report shows what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based largely on past trends and although they will reflect past policy and economic impacts, they do not take account of future changes that may occur as a result of policy initiatives at a local or national level. They do not take account of any future effects due to the recent vote to leave the European Union.

Projections are uncertain and become increasingly so the further they are carried forward in time. In addition to the principal projection, seven variant projections have been produced based on alternative, but generally plausible, assumptions of future fertility, mortality and net migration.

The full publication Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2014-based) can be found on this website.

Footnote
1) Working age and pensionable age and over populations are based on State Pension Age for a given year, as set out in the 2014 Pensions Act. Between 2014 and 2018, the state pension age will rise from 62 to 65 for women. Then between 2019 and 2020, it will rise from 65 years to 66 years for both men and women. A further rise in state pension age to 67 will take place between 2026 and 2028. Between 2044 and 2046, state pension age will increase from 67 to 68. The UK Government plan to review state pension age every five years in line with life expectancy and other factors.

In total, 20,503 deaths were registered from December 2015 to March 2016, compared with 22,013 in the previous winter (2014/15), according to statistics released today by the National Records of Scotland (NRS).

The 20,503 deaths registered in the four winter months of 2015/16 exceeded both the 17,625 deaths in the preceding four-month period and the 17,675 deaths in the following four-month period.

The seasonal difference (comparing the four winter months with the average of the four-month periods before and after the winter, and rounding the result) was 2,850 for winter 2015/16. This was 1,210 fewer than the corresponding figure of 4,060 for winter 2014/15 (which was the largest seasonal increase since the 5,190 for winter 1999/2000). The seasonal increase of 2,850 in winter 2015/16 was smaller than in most of the 64 previous winters, but exceeded the level seen in 14 of the previous 20 winters, and in 8 of the previous 10 winters.

The last sixteen winters have had seven out of the ten lowest seasonal increases in the 65 winters for which figures are available. NRS statistics show that mortality can fluctuate markedly from winter to winter: occasionally one year will have an unusually large figure, like winter 2014/15.

Commenting on ‘Winter Mortality in Scotland - 2015/16’, Tim Ellis, Chief Executive of NRS, said:

"There are always more deaths in the winter in Scotland than in any other season. These new figures from National Records of Scotland show that last winter’s seasonal increase was smaller than the one for winter 2014/15, but it was still above the level seen in eight of the previous ten winters.

“However, looking at our figures, which go back to 1951/52, the long-term trend has clearly been downward. Despite the unusually high figure for winter 2014/15, the five-year moving average (which smoothes out much of the year-to-year fluctuation) is at its fourth lowest ever level.

"There is no single cause of additional deaths in winter. Very few are caused by hypothermia and only a small proportion by influenza. The underlying causes of most of the additional deaths include respiratory and circulatory diseases (such as pneumonia, coronary heart disease and stroke), dementia, and Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and other degenerative diseases.”

The full publication Winter Mortality in Scotland 2015/16 can be found on this website.

The number of people in Scotland living for more than a century has increased over the last 10 years.

Figures published today by the National Records of Scotland estimate that in 2015 there were 900 centenarians living in Scotland, an increase of 67 per cent from the estimate of 540 in 2005.

Tim Ellis, the Chief Executive of National Records of Scotland, said:

“When the current population of centenarians in Scotland was born, during or before the First World War, living to 100 years old was very uncommon.

“However, this has changed since the beginning of the 21st century when estimates showed there were around 500 people aged 100 years old and over in Scotland. These latest figures from National Records of Scotland show that the number of centenarians has increased by more than two thirds in the last ten years.”

The overwhelming majority of centenarians are women. In 2015, women accounted for 780 of Scotland’s centenarians (87 per cent) while 120 men had reached the milestone. Although the male population aged 90 to 99 increased from 2014 to 2015, seven out of every ten people in their 90s are women (71 per cent).

Since 2005, the number of centenarians relative to the rest of the population has increased to 1.7 centenarians for every 10,000 people in the total population in 2015.

The number of men aged 90 to 99 increased from 6,360 to 11,300 between 2005 and 2015, an increase of 78 per cent. The number of females aged 90 to 99 increased from 21,630 to 27,590 during the same period, an increase of 28 per cent.

Also published today are experimental statistics for the number of people aged 90+ for council areas in Scotland. South Ayrshire had the highest proportion of centenarians and Shetland Islands had the lowest. City of Edinburgh had the highest absolute number of centenarians and Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands had the lowest.

The full publications Centenarians in Scotland 2005 to 2015 and Sub-national Population Estimates for ages 90 and over are available on this website.

Provisional figures for vital events registered in the second quarter 2016, published today by National Records of Scotland (NRS).

The statistics show that 13,455 deaths were registered in the second quarter of the year – 448 (3.2 per cent) fewer than in the same period of 2015. Over the last decade the number of deaths in the second quarter (Q2) has fluctuated, ranging between 12,770 (in 2009) and 13,903 (in 2015). The 2016 Q2 figure is slightly above the average Q2 figure in the last ten years (13,309).

Deaths from coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, respiratory system disease and cancer have all decreased and are now similar to 2014 levels following large increases in 2015. The number of deaths from diseases of the nervous system (which include Alzheimer’s) has seen a further increase of four per cent in 2016 to reach 798 in the second quarter .

The provisional figures also show that:

• 13,930 births were registered in Scotland in quarter two – 213 (1.6 per cent) more than in the same period of 2015 and similar to the level in 2013. The total number of births for the second quarter fell to a low of around 12,600 in 2002. It then rose to around 14,800 in 2008 before falling back to the current level of around 13,900 in 2013.
• There were 8,052 marriages in total, 135 fewer than the figure for the second quarter of 2015 (a fall of 1.6 per cent). This is the lowest number of marriages in the second quarter since 2009.
• There were 282 same-sex marriages between 1 April and 30 June 2016, 144 (33.8 per cent) fewer than the total of 426 in the same period of 2015 (which was the second full quarter since the provisions on same sex marriage came into force at the end of 2014). 49 (17 per cent) of the same sex marriages in the second quarter were changes from civil partnerships. 
• There were 16 civil partnerships (nine male and seven female), three more than during the second quarter of 2015.
• Compared with the same period in 2015, the number of deaths from coronary heart disease fell by 7.6 per cent to 1,644, deaths from cerebrovascular disease fell by 7.9 per cent to 966, deaths from respiratory system disease fell by 9.0 per cent to 1,587 and there were 3,841 deaths from cancer (a decrease of 2.7 per cent).  

The full publication, Births, deaths and other vital events - quarterly figures, is available on this website.