Winter deaths fall

There was a 10% fall in the number of people who died during winter last year, according to new figures from National Records of Scotland. 

There were 21,983 deaths registered between December 2023 and March 2024. Ten percent fewer than the previous winter which had the highest number in 30 years.

Compared to the non-winter months either side, the seasonal increase was 1,796 deaths. This is much lower than the previous winter which saw a seasonal increase in deaths from flu and other respiratory conditions. This is the third lowest seasonal increase in the last ten years.

Philipa Haxton, Head of Vital Events Statistics at National Records of Scotland, said:

“Whilst these new figures are lower than the previous winter, the number of winter deaths has generally been increasing over the last decade.

“‘We know that Scotland’s population is ageing and that older age groups are affected most by the seasonal increase in mortality in winter. For people aged 85 and over there were 11 per cent more deaths over the winter period compared to the non-winter months. This compares to 7 per cent for those aged under 65.

Winter deaths are more common among females who tend to live longer.” 

The cause of death with the largest seasonal increase was dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (accounting for 380 additional deaths). Influenza accounted for 240 more deaths in the winter months and chronic lower respiratory disease 210 additional deaths.

Background
The full ‘Winter Mortality in Scotland’ publication is available from the NRS website.  It shows the seasonal increase in mortality recorded each winter in Scotland, broken down by age group, sex, cause of death, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation quintile, NHS Board, and Local Authority area.

The seasonal increase in mortality in the winter represents the number of additional deaths in winter. It is defined as the difference between the number of deaths in the four month winter period (December to March) and the average number of deaths in the two four-month periods which precede winter (August to November) and follow winter (April to July). It is also sometimes referred to as ‘excess winter deaths’ or ‘excess winter mortality’.

To account for differences in population size, seasonal increases for different areas are better compared using the Increased Winter Mortality Index (IWMI). This is defined as the number of additional winter deaths divided by the average number of deaths in a four month non-winter period, expressed as a percentage. 

Since 2019, fewer than ten deaths per year were directly due to cold weather, for example hypothermia. 

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Susie Rose
NRS Communications
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